McGregor vs Holloway 2: The Comeback Fight Nobody Saw Coming Back in 2013

<figure style="text-align: left; margin: 0px auto;"><span style="color: rgb(220, 38, 38); font-size: 24px; font-weight: 900;"><h1>McGregor vs Holloway 2: The Comeback Fight Nobody Saw Coming Back in 2013</h1></span></figure> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Boston, August 2013. Some UFC Fight Night prelim card most people couldn't name if you paid them. <a href="https://www.mmastacks.com/fighters/conor-mcgregor">McGregor's</a> second fight in the promotion. <a href="https://www.mmastacks.com/fighters/max-holloway">Holloway</a> was 21, already 3 losses deep in his first ten UFC fights, which is rough when you think about it. McGregor won the decision and that was that. Nobody in that building knew they'd just watched the opening scene of something that would headline the biggest UFC week of the year, thirteen years later.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">July 11, 2026 now. T-Mobile Arena. <a href="https://www.mmastacks.com/events/ufc-329">UFC 329</a>. Same two guys. Except now it's welterweight and McGregor hasn't stepped in a cage in five years. Five. Years.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong></strong></p><h2><strong><h2>What You Actually Need to Know Before McGregor vs Holloway 2 Match</h2></strong></h2><p></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">UFC 329, Saturday July 11, T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, part of International Fight Week. Main card on Paramount+ starting 9pm ET. Welterweight, 5 rounds, no belt involved.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">McGregor's sitting at 22-6. Hasn't fought since UFC 264 in July 2021 - broke his leg against Poirier in round one, remember that? Brutal. His last actual win was way back in January 2020, a 40 second knockout over Cerrone. He's lost 3 of his last 4. He's 37. And he just got off an 18 month suspension for missing drug tests (lifted in March, so barely any time to prep really).</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Holloway's 27-9. Lost the BMF title to Oliveira back in March, decision loss. He owns the UFC records for most significant strikes landed ever (3,655) and most total strikes (3,907) - basically the man just doesn't stop throwing. He's moving up to 170 for this, first time in his career fighting there.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Books have McGregor as a big underdog. Somewhere between +180 and +240 depending where you look. Holloway's -240 to -298. That's the longest underdog price of McGregor's whole career, which says something. Kalshi and Polymarket both have Holloway around 65%, McGregor at 35%.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">So yeah. On paper this isn't close.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong></strong></p><h2><strong><h2>Let's Talk About Reality Of McGregor vs Holloway 2</h2><div><br></div><div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/duixfbn5j/image/upload/v1783186551/mmastacks/media/amqeurg56hp9exnm4whx.jpg" alt="" style="transition-timing-function: ease, ease; margin: 0px auto; caret-color: rgb(220, 38, 38); color: rgb(220, 38, 38); font-size: 24px; text-align: center;"></div><div><br></div></strong></h2><p></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Because let's be real - this fight exists because it sells, not because either guy earned a title shot through recent performance. Holloway just lost. McGregor hasn't won since Trump's first term basically. The UFC isn't booking this because the rankings demanded it. They're booking it because McGregor's press conferences alone will get more views than most entire fight cards.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Nothing wrong with that honestly. That's just how the business works at this level. But it's worth saying out loud instead of pretending this is some organic title eliminator.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong></strong></p><h2><strong><h2>Why We're Picking McGregor Anyway</h2></strong></h2><p></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Everyone smart is picking Holloway. The odds say Holloway. The prediction markets say Holloway. We get it.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">We're picking McGregor.</p><figure style="text-align: center; margin: 0px auto;"> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/duixfbn5j/image/upload/v1783189137/mmastacks/media/dyxkvtaienueubpgeuxc.jpg" alt="" style="margin: 0px auto;"></figure><figure style="text-align: center; margin: 0px auto;"><br></figure> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Part of this is just... McGregor does this thing where he's most dangerous exactly when everyone's given up on him. 2018, gets destroyed by Khabib, gets absolutely roasted online for months after. Comes back in January 2020 and finishes Cerrone in 40 seconds. Didn't look rusty. Didn't look broken. Looked sharp. That pattern means something to us here.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Also - and this feels underrated - Holloway is jumping two weight classes. Two. He's spent his whole career being one of the smaller guys in his division and now he's carrying that same frame against a naturally bigger dude. His whole style depends on absorbing shots and keeping the pace up. That gets a lot scarier when the shots are coming from someone twenty pounds heavier who can still genuinely knock you out.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">McGregor's dangerous rounds are one and two. Fast starter, left hand still has pop even in his losses. Holloway gets scarier from round three on, once volume and cardio start breaking people down. So really this whole fight comes down to the first ten minutes. If McGregor connects clean even once early, this could be over quick.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Look, we know Holloway just landed that ridiculous buzzer beater KO on Gaethje at UFC 300. We know McGregor's spent more time in surgery rooms than gyms lately. We know all of it. Still feels like one of those fights where the obvious pick isn't right.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Pick: McGregor, TKO, round 2.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong></strong></p><h2><strong><h2>The Holloway Case (Because It's Actually Really Good)</h2></strong></h2><p></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Fair's fair - the smart pick genuinely is Holloway.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Most active elite striker in the sport, full stop. Seven fights since McGregor's last win. Hands are faster now than they were five years ago somehow. Defense has actually gotten better with age which barely ever happens in this sport. 6.9 significant strikes per minute across his recent stretch - almost nobody survives that pace across a full five rounds.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">McGregor is 37 with a leg that's been surgically rebuilt, five years of ring rust, and a body that's dealt with addiction issues and injury after injury. Wanting to win and being physically able to pull it off aren't the same thing when you're this deep into your thirties with this much time off.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Most likely path: Holloway jabs patiently, stays out of McGregor's power range for two rounds, then just takes over completely from round three once the gas tank hits empty. Late TKO or a clean decision. That's the pick with money on the line.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong></strong></p><h2><strong><h2>What's Actually On the Line Here</h2></strong></h2><p></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">McGregor's got one fight left on his UFC deal after this one. He's already talked about boxing money fights and bareknuckle stuff next. Win or lose Saturday, he's not chasing UFC gold anymore. He's chasing whoever cuts the biggest check.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Holloway's spot is trickier. Win here and he's back in multi-division title talk, plus he finally closes out this weird thirteen year story with McGregor. Lose to an inactive 37 year old at a weight he's never fought before? That's a strange footnote on an otherwise elite career.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Rest of the card deserves attention too - Saint-Denis vs Pimblett is a real lightweight fight, Sandhagen vs Bautista should be technical as hell, Royval vs Kavanagh at flyweight is gonna be fun. Watch McGregor if that's why you're there, but don't skip out early.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><strong></strong></p><h2><strong><h2>Our Odds</h2></strong></h2><p></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Holloway by decision or late stoppage. That's what the smart money says. That's what the sharp analysts say. We get why.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Still can't shake the other read though. Maybe it's McGregor's history of showing up exactly when he's been counted out. Maybe it's Holloway carrying size he's never dealt with before. Maybe MMA just produces more genuine chaos than any other sport we cover.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Twelve days left. We'll find out soon.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Pick: McGregor, TKO, round 2. Tell us we were wrong on July 12th!</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><br></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">You can also simulate this fight yourself on our <a class="underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="/tools/simulator">Fight Simulator</a></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"><br></p>